Provincial Osorno 2–1 Concón National

Provincial Osorno

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Concón National

4/6/2024

Segunda División · Round 6Estadio Municipal Rubén Marcos Peralta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Provincial Osorno42%

×Draw25%

Concón National33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Provincial OsornoExpected goals in this matchConcón National

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.36

Provincial Osorno

1.56

Concón National

1.36

Provincial Osorno creates 15% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 31 away

1.64

creates per match

1.65

1.07

allows per match

1.48

creates per match

Provincial Osorno

1.64

Concón National

1.65

allows per match

Provincial Osorno

1.07

Concón National

1.48

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Provincial Osorno+0.00on par

Concón National+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Provincial Osorno ↓

Concón National →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Provincial Osorno or draw

67%

Provincial Osorno or Concón National

75%

Draw or Concón National

58%

Winning margin

Provincial Osorno wins by 2+

21%

Concón National wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Provincial Osorno 1+ goals

79%

Provincial Osorno 2+ goals

46%

Provincial Osorno 3+ goals

21%

Concón National 1+ goals

74%

Concón National 2+ goals

39%

Concón National 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Provincial Osorno (draw refunded)

56%

Concón National (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Provincial Osorno at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.07 · 44 matches

Concón National away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.48 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Provincial Osorno attack 1.64 + Concón National defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.56

Concón National attack 1.65 + Provincial Osorno defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Provincial Osorno scores more

42%

level

25%

Concón National scores more

33%

Provincial Osorno at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Provincial Osorno will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff