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Provincial Osorno vs Concepción — Segunda División 2020

Provincial Osorno
Provincial Osorno
FT
1 – 4
HT: 1 – 1
Concepción
Concepción
7/13/2024Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 14Estadio Municipal Rubén Marcos Peralta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Provincial Osorno44%
×Draw26%
Concepción30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Provincial Osorno
1.48
Concepción
1.17

Provincial Osorno creates 26% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 59 away

creates per match

Provincial Osorno
1.64
Concepción
1.27

allows per match

Provincial Osorno
1.07
Concepción
1.31

finishing

Provincial Osorno+0.00on par
Concepción+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Provincial Osorno ↓

Concepción →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Provincial Osorno or draw
70%
Provincial Osorno or Concepción
74%
Draw or Concepción
56%

Winning margin

Provincial Osorno wins by 2+
22%
Concepción wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Provincial Osorno 1+ goals
77%
Provincial Osorno 2+ goals
43%
Provincial Osorno 3+ goals
19%
Concepción 1+ goals
69%
Concepción 2+ goals
33%
Concepción 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Provincial Osorno (draw refunded)
60%
Concepción (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Provincial Osorno at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.07 · 44 matches

Concepción away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.31 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Provincial Osorno attack 1.64 + Concepción defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.48

Concepción attack 1.27 + Provincial Osorno defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Provincial Osorno scores more
44%
level
26%
Concepción scores more
30%

Provincial Osorno at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Provincial Osorno will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Provincial Osorno 1–4 Concepción

Concepción beat Provincial Osorno 4-1 in Segunda División on July 13, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Rubén Marcos Peralta in Osorno.