Prostějov vs Slovan Bratislava

Prostějov

CANC

12:00

Slovan Bratislava

2/2/2024

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3TBC

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Prostějov60%

×Draw20%

Slovan Bratislava20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ProstějovExpected goals in this matchSlovan Bratislava

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.21

1.22

Prostějov

2.21

Slovan Bratislava

1.22

Prostějov creates 81% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 14 away

3.36

creates per match

1.79

0.64

allows per match

1.07

creates per match

Prostějov

3.36

Slovan Bratislava

1.79

allows per match

Prostějov

0.64

Slovan Bratislava

1.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Prostějov+0.00on par

Slovan Bratislava+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Prostějov ↓

Slovan Bratislava →

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1–07%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Prostějov or draw

80%

Prostějov or Slovan Bratislava

80%

Draw or Slovan Bratislava

40%

Winning margin

Prostějov wins by 2+

37%

Slovan Bratislava wins by 2+

Team goals

Prostějov 1+ goals

89%

Prostějov 2+ goals

65%

Prostějov 3+ goals

38%

Slovan Bratislava 1+ goals

70%

Slovan Bratislava 2+ goals

34%

Slovan Bratislava 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Prostějov (draw refunded)

75%

Slovan Bratislava (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Prostějov at home — creates 3.36, concedes 0.64 · 11 matches

Slovan Bratislava away — creates 1.79, concedes 1.07 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Prostějov attack 3.36 + Slovan Bratislava defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 2.21

Slovan Bratislava attack 1.79 + Prostějov defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 60%?"

Prostějov scores more

60%

level

20%

Slovan Bratislava scores more

20%

Prostějov at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Prostějov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff