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Prostějov vs Artis — FNL 2019

Prostějov
Prostějov
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Artis
Artis
5/1/2026FNLFNL · Round 26Stadion Za Mistnim nadrazim

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 103+ matches

Prostějov37%
×Draw26%
Artis37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Prostějov
1.30
Artis
1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 103 home / 103 away

creates per match

Prostějov
1.40
Artis
1.28

allows per match

Prostějov
1.30
Artis
1.21

finishing

Prostějov+0.00on par
Artis+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Prostějov ↓

Artis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Prostějov or draw
63%
Prostějov or Artis
74%
Draw or Artis
63%

Winning margin

Prostějov wins by 2+
16%
Artis wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Prostějov 1+ goals
73%
Prostějov 2+ goals
37%
Prostějov 3+ goals
14%
Artis 1+ goals
72%
Artis 2+ goals
37%
Artis 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Prostějov (draw refunded)
50%
Artis (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Prostějov at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.30 · 103 matches

Artis away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.21 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Prostějov attack 1.40 + Artis defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.30

Artis attack 1.28 + Prostějov defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Prostějov scores more
37%
level
26%
Artis scores more
37%

Prostějov at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Prostějov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FNL: Prostějov 1–1 Artis

Prostějov and Artis drew 1-1 in FNL on May 1, 2026.

The match was played at Stadion Za Mistnim nadrazim in Prostejov.