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Próspera Criciuma vs Juventus SC — Serie D 2018

Próspera Criciuma
Próspera Criciuma
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Juventus SC
Juventus SC
7/4/2022Serie DSerie D · 1st Phase - 12Estádio da Montanha

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Próspera Criciuma30%
×Draw28%
Juventus SC42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Próspera Criciuma
1.03
Juventus SC
1.28

Juventus SC creates 24% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 14 away

creates per match

Próspera Criciuma
0.86
Juventus SC
0.86

allows per match

Próspera Criciuma
1.71
Juventus SC
1.21

finishing

Próspera Criciuma+0.00on par
Juventus SC+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Próspera Criciuma ↓

Juventus SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Próspera Criciuma or draw
58%
Próspera Criciuma or Juventus SC
72%
Draw or Juventus SC
70%

Winning margin

Próspera Criciuma wins by 2+
11%
Juventus SC wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Próspera Criciuma 1+ goals
64%
Próspera Criciuma 2+ goals
28%
Próspera Criciuma 3+ goals
9%
Juventus SC 1+ goals
72%
Juventus SC 2+ goals
37%
Juventus SC 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Próspera Criciuma (draw refunded)
41%
Juventus SC (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Próspera Criciuma at home — creates 0.86, concedes 1.71 · 7 matches

Juventus SC away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.21 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Próspera Criciuma attack 0.86 + Juventus SC defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.03

Juventus SC attack 0.86 + Próspera Criciuma defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Próspera Criciuma scores more
30%
level
28%
Juventus SC scores more
42%

Juventus SC at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Juventus SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D: Próspera Criciuma 1–1 Juventus SC

Próspera Criciuma and Juventus SC drew 1-1 in Serie D on July 4, 2022.

The match was played at Estádio da Montanha in Nova Veneza, Santa Catarina.