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Próspera Criciuma vs Azuriz — Serie D 2018

Próspera Criciuma
Próspera Criciuma
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Azuriz
Azuriz
6/20/2022Serie DSerie D · 1st Phase - 10Estádio da Montanha

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Próspera Criciuma29%
×Draw29%
Azuriz42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Próspera Criciuma
0.96
Azuriz
1.21

Azuriz creates 26% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 20 away

creates per match

Próspera Criciuma
0.86
Azuriz
0.70

allows per match

Próspera Criciuma
1.71
Azuriz
1.05

finishing

Próspera Criciuma+0.00on par
Azuriz+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Próspera Criciuma ↓

Azuriz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–114%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Próspera Criciuma or draw
58%
Próspera Criciuma or Azuriz
71%
Draw or Azuriz
71%

Winning margin

Próspera Criciuma wins by 2+
10%
Azuriz wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Próspera Criciuma 1+ goals
62%
Próspera Criciuma 2+ goals
25%
Próspera Criciuma 3+ goals
7%
Azuriz 1+ goals
70%
Azuriz 2+ goals
34%
Azuriz 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Próspera Criciuma (draw refunded)
41%
Azuriz (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Próspera Criciuma at home — creates 0.86, concedes 1.71 · 7 matches

Azuriz away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.05 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Próspera Criciuma attack 0.86 + Azuriz defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.96

Azuriz attack 0.70 + Próspera Criciuma defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Próspera Criciuma scores more
29%
level
29%
Azuriz scores more
42%

Azuriz at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Azuriz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D: Próspera Criciuma 1–3 Azuriz

Azuriz beat Próspera Criciuma 3-1 in Serie D on June 20, 2022.

The match was played at Estádio da Montanha in Nova Veneza, Santa Catarina.