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Proleter Novi SAD vs TSC Backa Topola — Super Liga 2018

Proleter Novi SAD
Proleter Novi SAD
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
TSC Backa Topola
TSC Backa Topola
10/17/2021Super LigaSuper Liga · Round 13Stadion Karađorđe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Proleter Novi SAD34%
×Draw27%
TSC Backa Topola39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Proleter Novi SAD
1.18
TSC Backa Topola
1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 70 home / 125 away

creates per match

Proleter Novi SAD
1.04
TSC Backa Topola
1.54

allows per match

Proleter Novi SAD
1.01
TSC Backa Topola
1.31

finishing

Proleter Novi SAD+0.00on par
TSC Backa Topola+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Proleter Novi SAD ↓

TSC Backa Topola →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Proleter Novi SAD or draw
61%
Proleter Novi SAD or TSC Backa Topola
73%
Draw or TSC Backa Topola
66%

Winning margin

Proleter Novi SAD wins by 2+
14%
TSC Backa Topola wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Proleter Novi SAD 1+ goals
69%
Proleter Novi SAD 2+ goals
33%
Proleter Novi SAD 3+ goals
12%
TSC Backa Topola 1+ goals
72%
TSC Backa Topola 2+ goals
36%
TSC Backa Topola 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Proleter Novi SAD (draw refunded)
47%
TSC Backa Topola (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Proleter Novi SAD at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.01 · 70 matches

TSC Backa Topola away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.31 · 125 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Proleter Novi SAD attack 1.04 + TSC Backa Topola defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.18

TSC Backa Topola attack 1.54 + Proleter Novi SAD defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Proleter Novi SAD scores more
34%
level
27%
TSC Backa Topola scores more
39%

TSC Backa Topola at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "TSC Backa Topola will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Proleter Novi SAD vs TSC Backa Topola

Proleter Novi SAD beat TSC Backa Topola 1-0 in Super Liga on October 17, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Karađorđe in Novi Sad.