Proleter Novi SAD 0–1 Mladost Lucani

Proleter Novi SAD

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Mladost Lucani

4/18/2021

Super Liga · Round 32Stadion Karađorđe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Proleter Novi SAD45%

×Draw28%

Mladost Lucani27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Proleter Novi SADExpected goals in this matchMladost Lucani

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

0.94

Proleter Novi SAD

1.31

Mladost Lucani

0.94

Proleter Novi SAD creates 39% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 147 away

1.04

creates per match

0.86

1.01

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Proleter Novi SAD

1.04

Mladost Lucani

0.86

allows per match

Proleter Novi SAD

1.01

Mladost Lucani

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Proleter Novi SAD+0.00on par

Mladost Lucani+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Proleter Novi SAD ↓

Mladost Lucani →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Proleter Novi SAD or draw

73%

Proleter Novi SAD or Mladost Lucani

72%

Draw or Mladost Lucani

55%

Winning margin

Proleter Novi SAD wins by 2+

21%

Mladost Lucani wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Proleter Novi SAD 1+ goals

73%

Proleter Novi SAD 2+ goals

38%

Proleter Novi SAD 3+ goals

14%

Mladost Lucani 1+ goals

61%

Mladost Lucani 2+ goals

24%

Mladost Lucani 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Proleter Novi SAD (draw refunded)

63%

Mladost Lucani (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Proleter Novi SAD at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.01 · 70 matches

Mladost Lucani away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.57 · 147 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Proleter Novi SAD attack 1.04 + Mladost Lucani defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.31

Mladost Lucani attack 0.86 + Proleter Novi SAD defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Proleter Novi SAD scores more

45%

level

28%

Mladost Lucani scores more

27%

Proleter Novi SAD at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Proleter Novi SAD will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff