Proleter Novi SAD 1–1 Backa: Result & Stats

Proleter Novi SAD

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Backa

8/9/2020

Super Liga · Round 3Stadion Slana Bara

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Proleter Novi SAD57%

×Draw25%

Backa18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Proleter Novi SADExpected goals in this matchBacka

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

0.76

Proleter Novi SAD

1.57

Backa

0.76

Proleter Novi SAD creates 107% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 38 away

1.04

creates per match

0.50

1.01

allows per match

2.11

creates per match

Proleter Novi SAD

1.04

Backa

0.50

allows per match

Proleter Novi SAD

1.01

Backa

2.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Proleter Novi SAD+0.00on par

Backa+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Proleter Novi SAD ↓

Backa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Proleter Novi SAD or draw

82%

Proleter Novi SAD or Backa

75%

Draw or Backa

43%

Winning margin

Proleter Novi SAD wins by 2+

30%

Backa wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Proleter Novi SAD 1+ goals

79%

Proleter Novi SAD 2+ goals

46%

Proleter Novi SAD 3+ goals

21%

Backa 1+ goals

53%

Backa 2+ goals

18%

Backa 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Proleter Novi SAD (draw refunded)

76%

Backa (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Proleter Novi SAD at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.01 · 70 matches

Backa away — creates 0.50, concedes 2.11 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Proleter Novi SAD attack 1.04 + Backa defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.57

Backa attack 0.50 + Proleter Novi SAD defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Proleter Novi SAD scores more

57%

level

25%

Backa scores more

18%

Proleter Novi SAD at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Proleter Novi SAD will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff