Progresul Spartac vs Tunari — Liga II 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 26+ matches
Progresul Spartac32%
Tunari44%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Tunari creates 21% more chances
Season form · 26 home / 26 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over59
- Under41
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes61
- No39
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Progresul Spartac ↓
Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Progresul Spartac at home — creates 0.92, concedes 2.27 · 26 matches
Tunari away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.85 · 26 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Progresul Spartac attack 0.92 + Tunari defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.39
Tunari attack 1.08 + Progresul Spartac defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 1.68
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 44%?"
Tunari at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 44% does not mean "Tunari will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Progresul Spartac substitutes
Head to Head
5 previous meetings
Corvinul Hunedoara
FC Voluntari
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
ASA Targu Mures
Metalul Buzău
Bihor Oradea
CSA Steaua Bucureşti
Slatina
FC Bacau
Concordia
Politehnica Iasi
CSM Reşiţa
Chindia Targoviste
CS Afumati
Gloria Bistriţa
Viitorul Şelimbăr
Dumbrăviţa
CSM Satu MareTunari
CS Dinamo București
Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ
Muscelul Câmpulung EliteIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Progresul Spartac host Tunari on Saturday, 11 May 2024 at 08:00. The match is part of the Liga II 2018/2019 season.
Match Recap: Progresul Spartac vs Tunari
Progresul Spartac beat Tunari 3-1 in Liga II on May 11, 2024.
Goals: A. Florescu (42', 88'), A. Chirițoiu (59' pen), M. Ivanovski (64' pen).
The match was played at Centrul de Fotbal Buftea Teren Sintetic in Buftea.