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Progresul Spartac vs Slatina — Liga II 2018

Progresul Spartac
Progresul Spartac
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Slatina
Slatina
12/3/2022Liga IILiga II · Round 16Centrul de Fotbal Buftea Teren Sintetic

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Progresul Spartac24%
×Draw23%
Slatina53%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Progresul Spartac
1.16
Slatina
1.82

Slatina creates 57% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 66 away

creates per match

Progresul Spartac
0.92
Slatina
1.38

allows per match

Progresul Spartac
2.27
Slatina
1.39

finishing

Progresul Spartac+0.00on par
Slatina+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Progresul Spartac ↓

Slatina →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Progresul Spartac or draw
47%
Progresul Spartac or Slatina
77%
Draw or Slatina
76%

Winning margin

Progresul Spartac wins by 2+
9%
Slatina wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Progresul Spartac 1+ goals
69%
Progresul Spartac 2+ goals
32%
Progresul Spartac 3+ goals
11%
Slatina 1+ goals
84%
Slatina 2+ goals
54%
Slatina 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Progresul Spartac (draw refunded)
32%
Slatina (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Progresul Spartac at home — creates 0.92, concedes 2.27 · 26 matches

Slatina away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.39 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Progresul Spartac attack 0.92 + Slatina defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.16

Slatina attack 1.38 + Progresul Spartac defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 1.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Progresul Spartac scores more
24%
level
23%
Slatina scores more
53%

Slatina at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Slatina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Progresul Spartac vs Slatina

Progresul Spartac and Slatina drew 1-1 in Liga II on December 3, 2022.

The match was played at Centrul de Fotbal Buftea Teren Sintetic in Buftea.