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Progresul Spartac vs SCM Gloria Buzău — Liga II 2018

Progresul Spartac
Progresul Spartac
FT
1 – 5
HT: 0 – 3
SCM Gloria Buzău
SCM Gloria Buzău
2/25/2024Liga IILiga II · Round 16Centrul de Fotbal Buftea Teren Sintetic

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Progresul Spartac23%
×Draw23%
SCM Gloria Buzău54%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Progresul Spartac
1.09
SCM Gloria Buzău
1.81

SCM Gloria Buzău creates 66% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 66 away

creates per match

Progresul Spartac
0.92
SCM Gloria Buzău
1.35

allows per match

Progresul Spartac
2.27
SCM Gloria Buzău
1.26

finishing

Progresul Spartac+0.00on par
SCM Gloria Buzău+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Progresul Spartac ↓

SCM Gloria Buzău →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Progresul Spartac or draw
46%
Progresul Spartac or SCM Gloria Buzău
77%
Draw or SCM Gloria Buzău
77%

Winning margin

Progresul Spartac wins by 2+
9%
SCM Gloria Buzău wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Progresul Spartac 1+ goals
66%
Progresul Spartac 2+ goals
30%
Progresul Spartac 3+ goals
10%
SCM Gloria Buzău 1+ goals
84%
SCM Gloria Buzău 2+ goals
54%
SCM Gloria Buzău 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Progresul Spartac (draw refunded)
30%
SCM Gloria Buzău (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Progresul Spartac at home — creates 0.92, concedes 2.27 · 26 matches

SCM Gloria Buzău away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.26 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Progresul Spartac attack 0.92 + SCM Gloria Buzău defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.09

SCM Gloria Buzău attack 1.35 + Progresul Spartac defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Progresul Spartac scores more
23%
level
23%
SCM Gloria Buzău scores more
54%

SCM Gloria Buzău at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "SCM Gloria Buzău will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Progresul Spartac 1 – 5 SCM Gloria Buzău

SCM Gloria Buzău beat Progresul Spartac 5-1 in Liga II on February 25, 2024.

The match was played at Centrul de Fotbal Buftea Teren Sintetic in Buftea.