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Progresul Spartac vs Ripensia Timisoara — Liga II 2018

Progresul Spartac
Progresul Spartac
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Ripensia Timisoara
Ripensia Timisoara
4/14/2023Liga IILiga II · Relegation Round - 4Centrul de Fotbal Buftea Teren Sintetic

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Progresul Spartac28%
×Draw24%
Ripensia Timisoara48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Progresul Spartac
1.21
Ripensia Timisoara
1.65

Ripensia Timisoara creates 36% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 70 away

creates per match

Progresul Spartac
0.92
Ripensia Timisoara
1.03

allows per match

Progresul Spartac
2.27
Ripensia Timisoara
1.49

finishing

Progresul Spartac+0.00on par
Ripensia Timisoara+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Progresul Spartac ↓

Ripensia Timisoara →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Progresul Spartac or draw
52%
Progresul Spartac or Ripensia Timisoara
76%
Draw or Ripensia Timisoara
72%

Winning margin

Progresul Spartac wins by 2+
11%
Ripensia Timisoara wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Progresul Spartac 1+ goals
70%
Progresul Spartac 2+ goals
34%
Progresul Spartac 3+ goals
12%
Ripensia Timisoara 1+ goals
81%
Ripensia Timisoara 2+ goals
49%
Ripensia Timisoara 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Progresul Spartac (draw refunded)
37%
Ripensia Timisoara (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Progresul Spartac at home — creates 0.92, concedes 2.27 · 26 matches

Ripensia Timisoara away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.49 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Progresul Spartac attack 0.92 + Ripensia Timisoara defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.21

Ripensia Timisoara attack 1.03 + Progresul Spartac defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Progresul Spartac scores more
28%
level
24%
Ripensia Timisoara scores more
48%

Ripensia Timisoara at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Ripensia Timisoara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Progresul Spartac 1 – 0 Ripensia Timisoara

Progresul Spartac beat Ripensia Timisoara 1-0 in Liga II on April 14, 2023.

The match was played at Centrul de Fotbal Buftea Teren Sintetic in Buftea.