Progresul Spartac vs Dumbrăviţa — Liga II 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 26+ matches
Progresul Spartac31%
Dumbrăviţa45%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Dumbrăviţa creates 25% more chances
Season form · 26 home / 54 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over55
- Under45
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes58
- No42
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Progresul Spartac ↓
Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Progresul Spartac at home — creates 0.92, concedes 2.27 · 26 matches
Dumbrăviţa away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.65 · 54 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Progresul Spartac attack 0.92 + Dumbrăviţa defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.28
Dumbrăviţa attack 0.94 + Progresul Spartac defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 1.60
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 45%?"
Dumbrăviţa at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 45% does not mean "Dumbrăviţa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Progresul Spartac substitutes
Head to Head
3 previous meetings · small sample
Corvinul Hunedoara
FC Voluntari
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
ASA Targu Mures
Metalul Buzău
Bihor Oradea
CSA Steaua Bucureşti
Slatina
FC Bacau
Concordia
Politehnica Iasi
CSM Reşiţa
Chindia Targoviste
CS Afumati
Gloria Bistriţa
Viitorul ŞelimbărDumbrăviţa
CSM Satu Mare
Tunari
CS Dinamo București
Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ
Muscelul Câmpulung EliteIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Progresul Spartac host Dumbrăviţa on Tuesday, 12 September 2023 at 08:00. The match is part of the Liga II 2018/2019 season.
Progresul Spartac 1 – 3 Dumbrăviţa
Dumbrăviţa beat Progresul Spartac 3-1 in Liga II on September 12, 2023.
Goals: A. Toroc (40'), B. Nortey (42'), I. Tănase (72'), A. Crivac (74').
The match was played at Centrul de Fotbal Buftea Teren Natural in Buftea.