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Progresul Spartac vs ACS Sirineasa — Liga II 2018

Progresul Spartac
Progresul Spartac
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
ACS Sirineasa
ACS Sirineasa
9/16/2023Liga IILiga II · Round 6Centrul de Fotbal Buftea Teren Natural

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Progresul Spartac28%
×Draw24%
ACS Sirineasa48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Progresul Spartac
1.24
ACS Sirineasa
1.69

ACS Sirineasa creates 36% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 84 away

creates per match

Progresul Spartac
0.92
ACS Sirineasa
1.11

allows per match

Progresul Spartac
2.27
ACS Sirineasa
1.56

finishing

Progresul Spartac+0.00on par
ACS Sirineasa+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Progresul Spartac ↓

ACS Sirineasa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Progresul Spartac or draw
52%
Progresul Spartac or ACS Sirineasa
76%
Draw or ACS Sirineasa
72%

Winning margin

Progresul Spartac wins by 2+
12%
ACS Sirineasa wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Progresul Spartac 1+ goals
71%
Progresul Spartac 2+ goals
35%
Progresul Spartac 3+ goals
13%
ACS Sirineasa 1+ goals
82%
ACS Sirineasa 2+ goals
50%
ACS Sirineasa 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Progresul Spartac (draw refunded)
37%
ACS Sirineasa (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Progresul Spartac at home — creates 0.92, concedes 2.27 · 26 matches

ACS Sirineasa away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.56 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Progresul Spartac attack 0.92 + ACS Sirineasa defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.24

ACS Sirineasa attack 1.11 + Progresul Spartac defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Progresul Spartac scores more
28%
level
24%
ACS Sirineasa scores more
48%

ACS Sirineasa at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "ACS Sirineasa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga II: Progresul Spartac 1–2 ACS Sirineasa

ACS Sirineasa beat Progresul Spartac 2-1 in Liga II on September 16, 2023.

The match was played at Centrul de Fotbal Buftea Teren Natural in Buftea.