Progresul Fundulea 2–1 Recolta Gheorghe Doja

Progresul Fundulea

FT

2 – 1

Recolta Gheorghe Doja

4/26/2025

Liga III - Serie 3 · Group 3 - 2nd Phase - 6Stadionul Orășenesc

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Progresul Fundulea50%

×Draw23%

Recolta Gheorghe Doja27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Progresul FunduleaExpected goals in this matchRecolta Gheorghe Doja

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.81

1.26

Progresul Fundulea

1.81

Recolta Gheorghe Doja

1.26

Progresul Fundulea creates 44% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 64 away

1.57

creates per match

1.45

1.07

allows per match

2.06

creates per match

Progresul Fundulea

1.57

Recolta Gheorghe Doja

1.45

allows per match

Progresul Fundulea

1.07

Recolta Gheorghe Doja

2.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Progresul Fundulea+0.00on par

Recolta Gheorghe Doja+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Progresul Fundulea ↓

Recolta Gheorghe Doja →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Progresul Fundulea or draw

73%

Progresul Fundulea or Recolta Gheorghe Doja

77%

Draw or Recolta Gheorghe Doja

50%

Winning margin

Progresul Fundulea wins by 2+

28%

Recolta Gheorghe Doja wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Progresul Fundulea 1+ goals

84%

Progresul Fundulea 2+ goals

54%

Progresul Fundulea 3+ goals

27%

Recolta Gheorghe Doja 1+ goals

72%

Recolta Gheorghe Doja 2+ goals

36%

Recolta Gheorghe Doja 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Progresul Fundulea (draw refunded)

65%

Recolta Gheorghe Doja (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Progresul Fundulea at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.07 · 42 matches

Recolta Gheorghe Doja away — creates 1.45, concedes 2.06 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Progresul Fundulea attack 1.57 + Recolta Gheorghe Doja defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.81

Recolta Gheorghe Doja attack 1.45 + Progresul Fundulea defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Progresul Fundulea scores more

50%

level

23%

Recolta Gheorghe Doja scores more

27%

Progresul Fundulea at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Progresul Fundulea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff