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Progresul Fundulea vs Înainte Modelu — Liga III - Serie 3 2020

Progresul Fundulea
Progresul Fundulea
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Înainte Modelu
Înainte Modelu
5/11/2024Liga III - Serie 3Liga III - Serie 3 · Group 3 - 2nd Phase - 8Stadionul Orășenesc

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Progresul Fundulea52%
×Draw24%
Înainte Modelu24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Progresul Fundulea
1.71
Înainte Modelu
1.08

Progresul Fundulea creates 58% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 62 away

creates per match

Progresul Fundulea
1.57
Înainte Modelu
1.08

allows per match

Progresul Fundulea
1.07
Înainte Modelu
1.85

finishing

Progresul Fundulea+0.00on par
Înainte Modelu+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Progresul Fundulea ↓

Înainte Modelu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Progresul Fundulea or draw
76%
Progresul Fundulea or Înainte Modelu
76%
Draw or Înainte Modelu
48%

Winning margin

Progresul Fundulea wins by 2+
28%
Înainte Modelu wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Progresul Fundulea 1+ goals
82%
Progresul Fundulea 2+ goals
51%
Progresul Fundulea 3+ goals
24%
Înainte Modelu 1+ goals
66%
Înainte Modelu 2+ goals
29%
Înainte Modelu 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Progresul Fundulea (draw refunded)
68%
Înainte Modelu (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Progresul Fundulea at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.07 · 42 matches

Înainte Modelu away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.85 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Progresul Fundulea attack 1.57 + Înainte Modelu defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.71

Înainte Modelu attack 1.08 + Progresul Fundulea defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Progresul Fundulea scores more
52%
level
24%
Înainte Modelu scores more
24%

Progresul Fundulea at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Progresul Fundulea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Progresul Fundulea vs Înainte Modelu

Progresul Fundulea and Înainte Modelu drew 0-0 in Liga III - Serie 3 on May 11, 2024.

The match was played at Stadionul Orășenesc in Fundulea.