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Progresul Fundulea vs Gloria Băneasa — Liga III - Serie 3 2020

Progresul Fundulea
Progresul Fundulea
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Gloria Băneasa
Gloria Băneasa
9/21/2024Liga III - Serie 3Liga III - Serie 3 · Group 3 - 4Stadionul Orășenesc

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Progresul Fundulea47%
×Draw24%
Gloria Băneasa29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Progresul Fundulea
1.73
Gloria Băneasa
1.31

Progresul Fundulea creates 32% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 56 away

creates per match

Progresul Fundulea
1.57
Gloria Băneasa
1.55

allows per match

Progresul Fundulea
1.07
Gloria Băneasa
1.89

finishing

Progresul Fundulea+0.00on par
Gloria Băneasa+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Progresul Fundulea ↓

Gloria Băneasa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Progresul Fundulea or draw
71%
Progresul Fundulea or Gloria Băneasa
76%
Draw or Gloria Băneasa
53%

Winning margin

Progresul Fundulea wins by 2+
25%
Gloria Băneasa wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Progresul Fundulea 1+ goals
82%
Progresul Fundulea 2+ goals
52%
Progresul Fundulea 3+ goals
25%
Gloria Băneasa 1+ goals
73%
Gloria Băneasa 2+ goals
38%
Gloria Băneasa 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Progresul Fundulea (draw refunded)
62%
Gloria Băneasa (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Progresul Fundulea at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.07 · 42 matches

Gloria Băneasa away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.89 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Progresul Fundulea attack 1.57 + Gloria Băneasa defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.73

Gloria Băneasa attack 1.55 + Progresul Fundulea defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Progresul Fundulea scores more
47%
level
24%
Gloria Băneasa scores more
29%

Progresul Fundulea at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Progresul Fundulea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Progresul Fundulea vs Gloria Băneasa

Gloria Băneasa beat Progresul Fundulea 1-0 in Liga III - Serie 3 on September 21, 2024.

The match was played at Stadionul Orășenesc in Fundulea.