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Progresso vs Sporting de Benguela — Girabola 2019

Progresso
Progresso
FT
2 – 2
Sporting de Benguela
Sporting de Benguela
3/20/2022GirabolaGirabola · Round 23Estádio Municipal dos Coqueiros

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Progresso64%
×Draw22%
Sporting de Benguela15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Progresso
1.89
Sporting de Benguela
0.78

Progresso creates 142% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 29 away

creates per match

Progresso
1.05
Sporting de Benguela
0.38

allows per match

Progresso
1.19
Sporting de Benguela
2.72

finishing

Progresso+0.00on par
Sporting de Benguela+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Progresso ↓

Sporting de Benguela →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Progresso or draw
85%
Progresso or Sporting de Benguela
78%
Draw or Sporting de Benguela
36%

Winning margin

Progresso wins by 2+
38%
Sporting de Benguela wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Progresso 1+ goals
85%
Progresso 2+ goals
56%
Progresso 3+ goals
29%
Sporting de Benguela 1+ goals
54%
Sporting de Benguela 2+ goals
18%
Sporting de Benguela 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Progresso (draw refunded)
81%
Sporting de Benguela (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Progresso at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.19 · 42 matches

Sporting de Benguela away — creates 0.38, concedes 2.72 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Progresso attack 1.05 + Sporting de Benguela defence 2.72 → ÷2 → 1.89

Sporting de Benguela attack 0.38 + Progresso defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Progresso scores more
64%
level
22%
Sporting de Benguela scores more
15%

Progresso at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Progresso will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Progresso vs Sporting de Benguela

Progresso and Sporting de Benguela drew 2-2 in Girabola on March 20, 2022.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal dos Coqueiros in Luanda.