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Progresso vs ASA — Girabola 2019

Progresso
Progresso
FT
1 – 1
ASA
ASA
7/28/2017GirabolaGirabola · Round 21Estádio Cidade Universitária

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Progresso45%
×Draw31%
ASA24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Progresso
1.17
ASA
0.76

Progresso creates 54% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 24 away

creates per match

Progresso
1.04
ASA
0.42

allows per match

Progresso
1.10
ASA
1.29

finishing

Progresso+0.00on par
ASA+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Progresso ↓

ASA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Progresso or draw
76%
Progresso or ASA
69%
Draw or ASA
55%

Winning margin

Progresso wins by 2+
20%
ASA wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Progresso 1+ goals
69%
Progresso 2+ goals
33%
Progresso 3+ goals
11%
ASA 1+ goals
53%
ASA 2+ goals
18%
ASA 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Progresso (draw refunded)
66%
ASA (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Progresso at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.10 · 49 matches

ASA away — creates 0.42, concedes 1.29 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Progresso attack 1.04 + ASA defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.17

ASA attack 0.42 + Progresso defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Progresso scores more
45%
level
31%
ASA scores more
24%

Progresso at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Progresso will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Progresso vs ASA

Progresso and ASA drew 1-1 in Girabola on July 28, 2017.

The match was played at Estádio Cidade Universitária in Luanda.