Progresso 0–1 1º de Agosto: Result & Stats

Progresso

FT

0 – 1

1º de Agosto

5/29/2021

Girabola · Round 22Estádio Municipal dos Coqueiros

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Progresso26%

×Draw30%

1º de Agosto44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ProgressoExpected goals in this match1º de Agosto

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.85

1.19

Progresso

0.85

1º de Agosto

1.19

1º de Agosto creates 40% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 110 away

1.04

creates per match

1.28

1.10

allows per match

0.66

creates per match

Progresso

1.04

1º de Agosto

1.28

allows per match

Progresso

1.10

1º de Agosto

0.66

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Progresso+0.00on par

1º de Agosto+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Progresso ↓

1º de Agosto →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–115%

0–29%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Progresso or draw

56%

Progresso or 1º de Agosto

70%

Draw or 1º de Agosto

74%

Winning margin

Progresso wins by 2+

9%

1º de Agosto wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Progresso 1+ goals

57%

Progresso 2+ goals

21%

Progresso 3+ goals

5%

1º de Agosto 1+ goals

70%

1º de Agosto 2+ goals

33%

1º de Agosto 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Progresso (draw refunded)

37%

1º de Agosto (draw refunded)

63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Progresso at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.10 · 50 matches

1º de Agosto away — creates 1.28, concedes 0.66 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Progresso attack 1.04 + 1º de Agosto defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 0.85

1º de Agosto attack 1.28 + Progresso defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Progresso scores more

26%

level

30%

1º de Agosto scores more

44%

1º de Agosto at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "1º de Agosto will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff