Progreso 1–1 Miramar: Result & Stats

Progreso

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Miramar

9/2/2023

Segunda División · 2nd Phase - 15Parque Abraham Paladino

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Progreso48%

×Draw24%

Miramar28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ProgresoExpected goals in this matchMiramar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.21

Progreso

1.67

Miramar

1.21

Progreso creates 38% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 37 away

2.12

creates per match

1.30

1.12

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Progreso

2.12

Miramar

1.30

allows per match

Progreso

1.12

Miramar

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Progreso+0.00on par

Miramar+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Progreso ↓

Miramar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Progreso or draw

72%

Progreso or Miramar

76%

Draw or Miramar

52%

Winning margin

Progreso wins by 2+

25%

Miramar wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Progreso 1+ goals

81%

Progreso 2+ goals

50%

Progreso 3+ goals

23%

Miramar 1+ goals

70%

Miramar 2+ goals

34%

Miramar 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Progreso (draw refunded)

63%

Miramar (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Progreso at home — creates 2.12, concedes 1.12 · 17 matches

Miramar away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.22 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Progreso attack 2.12 + Miramar defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.67

Miramar attack 1.30 + Progreso defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Progreso scores more

48%

level

24%

Miramar scores more

28%

Progreso at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Progreso will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff