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Progreso vs Boston River — Primera División - Apertura 2018

Progreso
Progreso
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Boston River
Boston River
4/13/2024Primera División - AperturaPrimera División - Apertura · Apertura - 8Parque Abraham Paladino

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Progreso38%
×Draw27%
Boston River36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Progreso
1.29
Boston River
1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 61 home / 82 away

creates per match

Progreso
1.31
Boston River
1.02

allows per match

Progreso
1.48
Boston River
1.27

finishing

Progreso+0.00on par
Boston River+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Progreso ↓

Boston River →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Progreso or draw
64%
Progreso or Boston River
73%
Draw or Boston River
62%

Winning margin

Progreso wins by 2+
17%
Boston River wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Progreso 1+ goals
72%
Progreso 2+ goals
37%
Progreso 3+ goals
14%
Boston River 1+ goals
71%
Boston River 2+ goals
36%
Boston River 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Progreso (draw refunded)
51%
Boston River (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Progreso at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.48 · 61 matches

Boston River away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.27 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Progreso attack 1.31 + Boston River defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.29

Boston River attack 1.02 + Progreso defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Progreso scores more
38%
level
27%
Boston River scores more
36%

Progreso at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Progreso will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Progreso vs Boston River

Progreso beat Boston River 1-0 in Primera División - Apertura on April 13, 2024.

The match was played at Parque Abraham Paladino in Montevideo.