Progreso 2–0 Bella Vista: Result & Stats

Progreso

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Bella Vista

10/15/2023

Segunda División · 2nd Phase - 17Parque Abraham Paladino

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Progreso58%

×Draw22%

Bella Vista20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ProgresoExpected goals in this matchBella Vista

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

0.99

Progreso

1.88

Bella Vista

0.99

Progreso creates 90% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 27 away

2.12

creates per match

0.85

1.12

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Progreso

2.12

Bella Vista

0.85

allows per match

Progreso

1.12

Bella Vista

1.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Progreso+0.00on par

Bella Vista+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Progreso ↓

Bella Vista →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Progreso or draw

80%

Progreso or Bella Vista

78%

Draw or Bella Vista

42%

Winning margin

Progreso wins by 2+

34%

Bella Vista wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Progreso 1+ goals

85%

Progreso 2+ goals

56%

Progreso 3+ goals

29%

Bella Vista 1+ goals

63%

Bella Vista 2+ goals

26%

Bella Vista 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Progreso (draw refunded)

75%

Bella Vista (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Progreso at home — creates 2.12, concedes 1.12 · 17 matches

Bella Vista away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.63 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Progreso attack 2.12 + Bella Vista defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.88

Bella Vista attack 0.85 + Progreso defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Progreso scores more

58%

level

22%

Bella Vista scores more

20%

Progreso at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Progreso will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff