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Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer vs Stade Tunisien — Cup 2019

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer
Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer
FT
3 – 5
Stade Tunisien
Stade Tunisien
1/29/2022CupCup · 2nd Preliminary RoundStade Municipal Sakiet Eddaier

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer53%
×Draw20%
Stade Tunisien26%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer
2.25
Stade Tunisien
1.54

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer creates 46% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 13 away

creates per match

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer
3.20
Stade Tunisien
2.08

allows per match

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer
1.00
Stade Tunisien
1.31

finishing

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer+0.00on par
Stade Tunisien+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer ↓

Stade Tunisien →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer or draw
74%
Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer or Stade Tunisien
80%
Draw or Stade Tunisien
47%

Winning margin

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer wins by 2+
32%
Stade Tunisien wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer 1+ goals
89%
Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer 2+ goals
65%
Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer 3+ goals
39%
Stade Tunisien 1+ goals
79%
Stade Tunisien 2+ goals
45%
Stade Tunisien 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer (draw refunded)
67%
Stade Tunisien (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer at home — creates 3.20, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

Stade Tunisien away — creates 2.08, concedes 1.31 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer attack 3.20 + Stade Tunisien defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 2.25

Stade Tunisien attack 2.08 + Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer scores more
53%
level
20%
Stade Tunisien scores more
26%

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer 3–5 Stade Tunisien

Stade Tunisien beat Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer 5-3 in Cup on January 29, 2022.

The match was played at Stade Municipal Sakiet Eddaier in Sakiet Eddaïer.