Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer 2–1 Ksour Essef

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Ksour Essef

9/21/2025

Ligue 2 · Round 1Stade Municipal Sakiet Eddaier

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer69%

×Draw21%

Ksour Essef9%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Progrès Sakiet EddaïerExpected goals in this matchKsour Essef

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

0.48

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer

1.79

Ksour Essef

0.48

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer creates 273% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 13 away

2.12

creates per match

0.62

0.35

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer

2.12

Ksour Essef

0.62

allows per match

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer

0.35

Ksour Essef

1.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer+0.00on par

Ksour Essef+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No68
Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer ↓

Ksour Essef →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–15%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–019%

1–19%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–017%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–15%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer or draw

91%

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer or Ksour Essef

79%

Draw or Ksour Essef

31%

Winning margin

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer wins by 2+

42%

Ksour Essef wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer 1+ goals

83%

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer 2+ goals

53%

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer 3+ goals

26%

Ksour Essef 1+ goals

38%

Ksour Essef 2+ goals

8%

Ksour Essef 3+ goals

1%

Draw no bet

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer (draw refunded)

88%

Ksour Essef (draw refunded)

12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer at home — creates 2.12, concedes 0.35 · 26 matches

Ksour Essef away — creates 0.62, concedes 1.46 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer attack 2.12 + Ksour Essef defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.79

Ksour Essef attack 0.62 + Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer defence 0.35 → ÷2 → 0.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer scores more

69%

level

21%

Ksour Essef scores more

9%

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff