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Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer vs Bouselem — Cup 2019

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer
Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer
FT
1 – 0
Bouselem
Bouselem
2/25/2024CupCup · 3rd RoundStade Municipal Sakiet Eddaier

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer55%
×Draw23%
Bouselem21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer
1.77
Bouselem
1.00

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer creates 77% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 3 away

creates per match

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer
3.20
Bouselem
1.00

allows per match

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer
1.00
Bouselem
0.33

finishing

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer+0.00on par
Bouselem+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer ↓

Bouselem →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer or draw
79%
Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer or Bouselem
77%
Draw or Bouselem
45%

Winning margin

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer wins by 2+
31%
Bouselem wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer 1+ goals
83%
Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer 2+ goals
53%
Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer 3+ goals
26%
Bouselem 1+ goals
63%
Bouselem 2+ goals
26%
Bouselem 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer (draw refunded)
72%
Bouselem (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer at home — creates 3.20, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

Bouselem away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer attack 3.20 + Bouselem defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 1.77

Bouselem attack 1.00 + Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer scores more
55%
level
23%
Bouselem scores more
21%

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer vs Bouselem

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer beat Bouselem 1-0 in Cup on February 25, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Municipal Sakiet Eddaier in Sakiet Eddaïer.