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Progres Niederkorn vs UN Kaerjeng 97 — National Division 2018

Progres Niederkorn
Progres Niederkorn
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
UN Kaerjeng 97
UN Kaerjeng 97
4/28/2024National DivisionNational Division · Round 26Stade Jos Haupert

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Progres Niederkorn56%
×Draw22%
UN Kaerjeng 9722%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Progres Niederkorn
1.92
UN Kaerjeng 97
1.10

Progres Niederkorn creates 75% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 45 away

creates per match

Progres Niederkorn
2.12
UN Kaerjeng 97
1.09

allows per match

Progres Niederkorn
1.10
UN Kaerjeng 97
1.71

finishing

Progres Niederkorn+0.00on par
UN Kaerjeng 97+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Progres Niederkorn ↓

UN Kaerjeng 97 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Progres Niederkorn or draw
78%
Progres Niederkorn or UN Kaerjeng 97
78%
Draw or UN Kaerjeng 97
44%

Winning margin

Progres Niederkorn wins by 2+
33%
UN Kaerjeng 97 wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Progres Niederkorn 1+ goals
85%
Progres Niederkorn 2+ goals
57%
Progres Niederkorn 3+ goals
30%
UN Kaerjeng 97 1+ goals
67%
UN Kaerjeng 97 2+ goals
30%
UN Kaerjeng 97 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Progres Niederkorn (draw refunded)
72%
UN Kaerjeng 97 (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Progres Niederkorn at home — creates 2.12, concedes 1.10 · 112 matches

UN Kaerjeng 97 away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.71 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Progres Niederkorn attack 2.12 + UN Kaerjeng 97 defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.92

UN Kaerjeng 97 attack 1.09 + Progres Niederkorn defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Progres Niederkorn scores more
56%
level
22%
UN Kaerjeng 97 scores more
22%

Progres Niederkorn at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Progres Niederkorn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Progres Niederkorn vs UN Kaerjeng 97

Progres Niederkorn beat UN Kaerjeng 97 2-0 in National Division on April 28, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Jos Haupert in Niedercorn.