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Progres Niederkorn vs RM Hamm Benfica — National Division 2018

Progres Niederkorn
Progres Niederkorn
FT
1 – 0
RM Hamm Benfica
RM Hamm Benfica
3/15/2019National DivisionNational Division · Round 17Stade Jos Haupert (Nidderkuer (Niedercorn))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Progres Niederkorn62%
×Draw20%
RM Hamm Benfica18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Progres Niederkorn
2.23
RM Hamm Benfica
1.13

Progres Niederkorn creates 97% more chances

Season form · 115 home / 52 away

creates per match

Progres Niederkorn
2.11
RM Hamm Benfica
1.13

allows per match

Progres Niederkorn
1.13
RM Hamm Benfica
2.35

finishing

Progres Niederkorn+0.00on par
RM Hamm Benfica+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Progres Niederkorn ↓

RM Hamm Benfica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Progres Niederkorn or draw
82%
Progres Niederkorn or RM Hamm Benfica
80%
Draw or RM Hamm Benfica
38%

Winning margin

Progres Niederkorn wins by 2+
39%
RM Hamm Benfica wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Progres Niederkorn 1+ goals
89%
Progres Niederkorn 2+ goals
65%
Progres Niederkorn 3+ goals
38%
RM Hamm Benfica 1+ goals
68%
RM Hamm Benfica 2+ goals
31%
RM Hamm Benfica 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Progres Niederkorn (draw refunded)
77%
RM Hamm Benfica (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Progres Niederkorn at home — creates 2.11, concedes 1.13 · 115 matches

RM Hamm Benfica away — creates 1.13, concedes 2.35 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Progres Niederkorn attack 2.11 + RM Hamm Benfica defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 2.23

RM Hamm Benfica attack 1.13 + Progres Niederkorn defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Progres Niederkorn scores more
62%
level
20%
RM Hamm Benfica scores more
18%

Progres Niederkorn at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Progres Niederkorn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

41'
Dino Ramdedovic

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Progres Niederkorn vs RM Hamm Benfica

Progres Niederkorn beat RM Hamm Benfica 1-0 in National Division on March 15, 2019.

Goals: Dino Ramdedovic (41').

The match was played at Stade Jos Haupert (Nidderkuer (Niedercorn)).