Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Progres Niederkorn vs F91 Dudelange — Cup 2020

Progres Niederkorn
Progres Niederkorn
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
F91 Dudelange
F91 Dudelangeadvanced
4/20/2022CupCup · Quarter-finalsStade Jos Haupert

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Progres Niederkorn18%
×Draw19%
F91 Dudelange63%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Progres Niederkorn
1.10
F91 Dudelange
2.25

F91 Dudelange creates 105% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 15 away

creates per match

Progres Niederkorn
1.00
F91 Dudelange
4.00

allows per match

Progres Niederkorn
0.50
F91 Dudelange
1.20

finishing

Progres Niederkorn+0.00on par
F91 Dudelange+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Progres Niederkorn ↓

F91 Dudelange →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–29%
0–37%
0–44%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–25%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Progres Niederkorn or draw
37%
Progres Niederkorn or F91 Dudelange
81%
Draw or F91 Dudelange
82%

Winning margin

Progres Niederkorn wins by 2+
6%
F91 Dudelange wins by 2+
40%

Team goals

Progres Niederkorn 1+ goals
67%
Progres Niederkorn 2+ goals
30%
Progres Niederkorn 3+ goals
10%
F91 Dudelange 1+ goals
89%
F91 Dudelange 2+ goals
65%
F91 Dudelange 3+ goals
39%

Draw no bet

Progres Niederkorn (draw refunded)
22%
F91 Dudelange (draw refunded)
78%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Progres Niederkorn at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.50 · 4 matches

F91 Dudelange away — creates 4.00, concedes 1.20 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Progres Niederkorn attack 1.00 + F91 Dudelange defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.10

F91 Dudelange attack 4.00 + Progres Niederkorn defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 2.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Progres Niederkorn scores more
18%
level
19%
F91 Dudelange scores more
63%

F91 Dudelange at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "F91 Dudelange will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Progres Niederkorn 0–2 F91 Dudelange

F91 Dudelange beat Progres Niederkorn 2-0 in Cup on April 20, 2022.

The match was played at Stade Jos Haupert in Niedercorn.