F91 Dudelange 0–2 Progres Niederkorn

F91 Dudelange

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Progres Niederkorn

5/18/2024

National Division · Round 29Stade Jos Nosbaum

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 111+ matches

F91 Dudelange47%

×Draw23%

Progres Niederkorn30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

F91 DudelangeExpected goals in this matchProgres Niederkorn

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.85

1.44

F91 Dudelange

1.85

Progres Niederkorn

1.44

F91 Dudelange creates 28% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 111 away

2.45

creates per match

1.68

1.19

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

F91 Dudelange

2.45

Progres Niederkorn

1.68

allows per match

F91 Dudelange

1.19

Progres Niederkorn

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

F91 Dudelange+0.00on par

Progres Niederkorn+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

F91 Dudelange ↓

Progres Niederkorn →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

F91 Dudelange or draw

70%

F91 Dudelange or Progres Niederkorn

77%

Draw or Progres Niederkorn

53%

Winning margin

F91 Dudelange wins by 2+

26%

Progres Niederkorn wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

F91 Dudelange 1+ goals

84%

F91 Dudelange 2+ goals

55%

F91 Dudelange 3+ goals

28%

Progres Niederkorn 1+ goals

76%

Progres Niederkorn 2+ goals

42%

Progres Niederkorn 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

F91 Dudelange (draw refunded)

61%

Progres Niederkorn (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

F91 Dudelange at home — creates 2.45, concedes 1.19 · 111 matches

Progres Niederkorn away — creates 1.68, concedes 1.25 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

F91 Dudelange attack 2.45 + Progres Niederkorn defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.85

Progres Niederkorn attack 1.68 + F91 Dudelange defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

F91 Dudelange scores more

47%

level

23%

Progres Niederkorn scores more

30%

F91 Dudelange at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "F91 Dudelange will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff