Progres Niederkorn vs F91 Dudelange — National Division 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 110+ matches
Progres Niederkorn35%
F91 Dudelange42%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Both teams create about equally
Season form · 110 home / 115 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over65
- Under35
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes66
- No34
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Progres Niederkorn ↓
Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Progres Niederkorn at home — creates 2.10, concedes 1.12 · 110 matches
F91 Dudelange away — creates 2.37, concedes 1.10 · 115 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Progres Niederkorn attack 2.10 + F91 Dudelange defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.60
F91 Dudelange attack 2.37 + Progres Niederkorn defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.75
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 42%?"
F91 Dudelange at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 42% does not mean "F91 Dudelange will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Atert Bissen
FC Differdange 03
US Mondorf-les-bains
UNA StrassenF91 Dudelange
AS Jeunesse Esch
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
UN Kaerjeng 97
US Hostert
Victoria RosportProgres Niederkorn
Swift Hesperange
Jeunesse Canach
Mamer
Union Titus Petange
Rodange 91
Résidence Walferdange
WiltzIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Progres Niederkorn host F91 Dudelange on Saturday, 12 September 2020 at 16:30. The match is part of the National Division 2018/2019 season.
National Division: Progres Niederkorn 1–2 F91 Dudelange
F91 Dudelange beat Progres Niederkorn 2-1 in National Division on September 12, 2020.
Goals: E. Muratovic (9'), C. Silaj (68'), Y. Schaus (87').
The match was played at Stade Jos Haupert in Niedercorn.