Pro Vercelli U19 2–0 Padova U19: Result & Stats

Pro Vercelli U19

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Padova U19

9/14/2024

Campionato Primavera - 2 · Group A - 1Stadio Silvio Piola

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Pro Vercelli U1946%

×Draw25%

Padova U1930%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Pro Vercelli U19Expected goals in this matchPadova U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.24

Pro Vercelli U19

1.60

Padova U19

1.24

Pro Vercelli U19 creates 29% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 61 away

1.47

creates per match

0.98

1.50

allows per match

1.74

creates per match

Pro Vercelli U19

1.47

Padova U19

0.98

allows per match

Pro Vercelli U19

1.50

Padova U19

1.74

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pro Vercelli U19+0.00on par

Padova U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pro Vercelli U19 ↓

Padova U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Pro Vercelli U19 or draw

70%

Pro Vercelli U19 or Padova U19

75%

Draw or Padova U19

54%

Winning margin

Pro Vercelli U19 wins by 2+

23%

Padova U19 wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Pro Vercelli U19 1+ goals

80%

Pro Vercelli U19 2+ goals

47%

Pro Vercelli U19 3+ goals

22%

Padova U19 1+ goals

71%

Padova U19 2+ goals

35%

Padova U19 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Pro Vercelli U19 (draw refunded)

61%

Padova U19 (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pro Vercelli U19 at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.50 · 30 matches

Padova U19 away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.74 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pro Vercelli U19 attack 1.47 + Padova U19 defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.60

Padova U19 attack 0.98 + Pro Vercelli U19 defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Pro Vercelli U19 scores more

46%

level

25%

Padova U19 scores more

30%

Pro Vercelli U19 at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Pro Vercelli U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff