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Pro Vercelli U19 vs AlbinoLeffe U19 — Campionato Primavera - 2 2020

Pro Vercelli U19
Pro Vercelli U19
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
AlbinoLeffe U19
AlbinoLeffe U19
5/9/2026Campionato Primavera - 2Campionato Primavera - 2 · Group A - 30

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Pro Vercelli U1945%
×Draw24%
AlbinoLeffe U1931%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pro Vercelli U19
1.69
AlbinoLeffe U19
1.38

Pro Vercelli U19 creates 22% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 63 away

creates per match

Pro Vercelli U19
1.47
AlbinoLeffe U19
1.25

allows per match

Pro Vercelli U19
1.50
AlbinoLeffe U19
1.90

finishing

Pro Vercelli U19+0.00on par
AlbinoLeffe U19+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pro Vercelli U19 ↓

AlbinoLeffe U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Pro Vercelli U19 or draw
69%
Pro Vercelli U19 or AlbinoLeffe U19
76%
Draw or AlbinoLeffe U19
55%

Winning margin

Pro Vercelli U19 wins by 2+
23%
AlbinoLeffe U19 wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Pro Vercelli U19 1+ goals
82%
Pro Vercelli U19 2+ goals
50%
Pro Vercelli U19 3+ goals
24%
AlbinoLeffe U19 1+ goals
75%
AlbinoLeffe U19 2+ goals
40%
AlbinoLeffe U19 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Pro Vercelli U19 (draw refunded)
59%
AlbinoLeffe U19 (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pro Vercelli U19 at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.50 · 30 matches

AlbinoLeffe U19 away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.90 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pro Vercelli U19 attack 1.47 + AlbinoLeffe U19 defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.69

AlbinoLeffe U19 attack 1.25 + Pro Vercelli U19 defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Pro Vercelli U19 scores more
45%
level
24%
AlbinoLeffe U19 scores more
31%

Pro Vercelli U19 at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Pro Vercelli U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pro Vercelli U19 vs AlbinoLeffe U19

Pro Vercelli U19 and AlbinoLeffe U19 drew 2-2 in Campionato Primavera - 2 on May 9, 2026.