Pro Calcio Tor Sapienza 1–0 Latte Dolce

Pro Calcio Tor Sapienza

FT

1 – 0

Latte Dolce

11/24/2019

Serie D - Girone G · Round 13Stadio Giorgio Castelli (Roma)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Pro Calcio Tor Sapienza32%

×Draw25%

Latte Dolce42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Pro Calcio Tor SapienzaExpected goals in this matchLatte Dolce

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.51

Pro Calcio Tor Sapienza

1.29

Latte Dolce

1.51

Latte Dolce creates 17% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 82 away

1.00

creates per match

1.10

1.92

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Pro Calcio Tor Sapienza

1.00

Latte Dolce

1.10

allows per match

Pro Calcio Tor Sapienza

1.92

Latte Dolce

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pro Calcio Tor Sapienza+0.00on par

Latte Dolce+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pro Calcio Tor Sapienza ↓

Latte Dolce →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Pro Calcio Tor Sapienza or draw

58%

Pro Calcio Tor Sapienza or Latte Dolce

75%

Draw or Latte Dolce

68%

Winning margin

Pro Calcio Tor Sapienza wins by 2+

14%

Latte Dolce wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Pro Calcio Tor Sapienza 1+ goals

72%

Pro Calcio Tor Sapienza 2+ goals

37%

Pro Calcio Tor Sapienza 3+ goals

14%

Latte Dolce 1+ goals

78%

Latte Dolce 2+ goals

44%

Latte Dolce 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Pro Calcio Tor Sapienza (draw refunded)

43%

Latte Dolce (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pro Calcio Tor Sapienza at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.92 · 13 matches

Latte Dolce away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.59 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pro Calcio Tor Sapienza attack 1.00 + Latte Dolce defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.29

Latte Dolce attack 1.10 + Pro Calcio Tor Sapienza defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Pro Calcio Tor Sapienza scores more

32%

level

25%

Latte Dolce scores more

42%

Latte Dolce at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Latte Dolce will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff