Prix-lès-Mézières 2–0 Wasquehal: Result & Stats

Prix-lès-Mézières

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Wasquehal

11/17/2019

Coupe de France · 7th RoundStade de la Poterie

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Prix-lès-Mézières51%

×Draw26%

Wasquehal23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Prix-lès-MézièresExpected goals in this matchWasquehal

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

0.93

Prix-lès-Mézières

1.52

Wasquehal

0.93

Prix-lès-Mézières creates 63% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 4 away

1.80

creates per match

1.25

0.60

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Prix-lès-Mézières

1.80

Wasquehal

1.25

allows per match

Prix-lès-Mézières

0.60

Wasquehal

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Prix-lès-Mézières+0.00on par

Wasquehal+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Prix-lès-Mézières ↓

Wasquehal →

0–09%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Prix-lès-Mézières or draw

77%

Prix-lès-Mézières or Wasquehal

74%

Draw or Wasquehal

49%

Winning margin

Prix-lès-Mézières wins by 2+

26%

Wasquehal wins by 2+

Team goals

Prix-lès-Mézières 1+ goals

78%

Prix-lès-Mézières 2+ goals

45%

Prix-lès-Mézières 3+ goals

20%

Wasquehal 1+ goals

61%

Wasquehal 2+ goals

24%

Wasquehal 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Prix-lès-Mézières (draw refunded)

69%

Wasquehal (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Prix-lès-Mézières at home — creates 1.80, concedes 0.60 · 5 matches

Wasquehal away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Prix-lès-Mézières attack 1.80 + Wasquehal defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.52

Wasquehal attack 1.25 + Prix-lès-Mézières defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 51%?"

Prix-lès-Mézières scores more

51%

level

26%

Wasquehal scores more

23%

Prix-lès-Mézières at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Prix-lès-Mézières will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Prix-lès-Mézières vs Wasquehal

Prix-lès-Mézières beat Wasquehal 2-0 in Coupe de France on November 17, 2019.

The match was played at Stade de la Poterie in Prix-lès-Mézières.

Prix-lès-Mézières vs Wasquehal — Coupe de France 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Prix-lès-Mézières vs Wasquehal