Prix-lès-Mézières 2–1 Thaon: Result & Stats

Prix-lès-Mézières

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Thaon

2/7/2021

Coupe de France · 7th RoundStade de la Poterie

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Prix-lès-Mézières28%

×Draw25%

Thaon46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Prix-lès-MézièresExpected goals in this matchThaon

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

1.55

Prix-lès-Mézières

1.15

Thaon

1.55

Thaon creates 35% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 8 away

1.80

creates per match

2.50

0.60

allows per match

0.50

creates per match

Prix-lès-Mézières

1.80

Thaon

2.50

allows per match

Prix-lès-Mézières

0.60

Thaon

0.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Prix-lès-Mézières+0.00on par

Thaon+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Prix-lès-Mézières ↓

Thaon →

0–07%

0–110%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2–04%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

28%72%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Prix-lès-Mézières or draw

54%

Prix-lès-Mézières or Thaon

75%

Draw or Thaon

72%

Winning margin

Prix-lès-Mézières wins by 2+

11%

Thaon wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Prix-lès-Mézières 1+ goals

68%

Prix-lès-Mézières 2+ goals

32%

Prix-lès-Mézières 3+ goals

11%

Thaon 1+ goals

79%

Thaon 2+ goals

46%

Thaon 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Prix-lès-Mézières (draw refunded)

38%

Thaon (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Prix-lès-Mézières at home — creates 1.80, concedes 0.60 · 5 matches

Thaon away — creates 2.50, concedes 0.50 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Prix-lès-Mézières attack 1.80 + Thaon defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 1.15

Thaon attack 2.50 + Prix-lès-Mézières defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 46%?"

Prix-lès-Mézières scores more

28%

level

25%

Thaon scores more

46%

Thaon at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Thaon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Coupe de France: Prix-lès-Mézières 2–1 Thaon

Prix-lès-Mézières beat Thaon 2-1 in Coupe de France on February 7, 2021.

The match was played at Stade de la Poterie in Prix-lès-Mézières.

Prix-lès-Mézières vs Thaon — Coupe de France 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Coupe de France: Prix-lès-Mézières 2–1 Thaon