Prix-lès-Mézières 2–2 Olympique St Quentin

Prix-lès-Mézières

Pens

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Olympique St Quentin

12/9/2018

Coupe de France · 8th RoundStade de la Poterie (Prix-lès-Mézières)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Prix-lès-Mézières51%

×Draw22%

Olympique St Quentin26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Prix-lès-MézièresExpected goals in this matchOlympique St Quentin

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.90

1.30

Prix-lès-Mézières

1.90

Olympique St Quentin

1.30

Prix-lès-Mézières creates 46% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 4 away

1.80

creates per match

2.00

0.60

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Prix-lès-Mézières

1.80

Olympique St Quentin

2.00

allows per match

Prix-lès-Mézières

0.60

Olympique St Quentin

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Prix-lès-Mézières+0.00on par

Olympique St Quentin+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Prix-lès-Mézières ↓

Olympique St Quentin →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Prix-lès-Mézières or draw

74%

Prix-lès-Mézières or Olympique St Quentin

78%

Draw or Olympique St Quentin

49%

Winning margin

Prix-lès-Mézières wins by 2+

29%

Olympique St Quentin wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Prix-lès-Mézières 1+ goals

85%

Prix-lès-Mézières 2+ goals

56%

Prix-lès-Mézières 3+ goals

29%

Olympique St Quentin 1+ goals

73%

Olympique St Quentin 2+ goals

37%

Olympique St Quentin 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Prix-lès-Mézières (draw refunded)

66%

Olympique St Quentin (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Prix-lès-Mézières at home — creates 1.80, concedes 0.60 · 5 matches

Olympique St Quentin away — creates 2.00, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Prix-lès-Mézières attack 1.80 + Olympique St Quentin defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.90

Olympique St Quentin attack 2.00 + Prix-lès-Mézières defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Prix-lès-Mézières scores more

51%

level

22%

Olympique St Quentin scores more

26%

Prix-lès-Mézières at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Prix-lès-Mézières will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Prix-lès-Mézières vs Olympique St Quentin

Prix-lès-Mézières and Olympique St Quentin drew 2-2 in Coupe de France on December 9, 2018.

The match was played at Stade de la Poterie (Prix-lès-Mézières).

Prix-lès-Mézières vs Olympique St Quentin — Coupe de France 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Prix-lès-Mézières vs Olympique St Quentin