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Prix-lès-Mézières vs Bastia — Coupe de France 2018

Prix-lès-Mézières
Prix-lès-Mézières
Pens
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Bastia
Bastia
10/29/2022Coupe de FranceCoupe de France · 7th RoundStade du Petit Bois

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Prix-lès-Mézières34%
×Draw25%
Bastia40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Prix-lès-Mézières
1.34
Bastia
1.47

Bastia creates 10% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 9 away

creates per match

Prix-lès-Mézières
1.80
Bastia
2.33

allows per match

Prix-lès-Mézières
0.60
Bastia
0.89

finishing

Prix-lès-Mézières+0.00on par
Bastia+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Prix-lès-Mézières ↓

Bastia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Prix-lès-Mézières or draw
60%
Prix-lès-Mézières or Bastia
75%
Draw or Bastia
66%

Winning margin

Prix-lès-Mézières wins by 2+
15%
Bastia wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Prix-lès-Mézières 1+ goals
74%
Prix-lès-Mézières 2+ goals
39%
Prix-lès-Mézières 3+ goals
15%
Bastia 1+ goals
77%
Bastia 2+ goals
43%
Bastia 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Prix-lès-Mézières (draw refunded)
46%
Bastia (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Prix-lès-Mézières at home — creates 1.80, concedes 0.60 · 5 matches

Bastia away — creates 2.33, concedes 0.89 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Prix-lès-Mézières attack 1.80 + Bastia defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.34

Bastia attack 2.33 + Prix-lès-Mézières defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Prix-lès-Mézières scores more
34%
level
25%
Bastia scores more
40%

Bastia at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Bastia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Prix-lès-Mézières vs Bastia

Prix-lès-Mézières and Bastia drew 0-0 in Coupe de France on October 29, 2022.

The match was played at Stade du Petit Bois in Charleville-Mézières.