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Prison Service vs Defence Force — League #591 2026

Prison Service
Prison Service
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Defence Force
Defence Force
A. Peters 64'
K. Hitlal 89'
J. Cooper 87'
D. Ollivierra 39'
R. Coryat 20'
6/1/2025League #591League #591 · Round 22Ken Cooke Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Prison Service15%
×Draw17%
Defence Force68%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Prison Service
1.18
Defence Force
2.66

Defence Force creates 125% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 26 away

creates per match

Prison Service
1.40
Defence Force
3.31

allows per match

Prison Service
2.00
Defence Force
0.96

finishing

Prison Service+0.00on par
Defence Force+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Prison Service ↓

Defence Force →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–16%
0–28%
0–37%
0–45%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–25%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Prison Service or draw
32%
Prison Service or Defence Force
83%
Draw or Defence Force
85%

Winning margin

Prison Service wins by 2+
6%
Defence Force wins by 2+
47%

Team goals

Prison Service 1+ goals
69%
Prison Service 2+ goals
33%
Prison Service 3+ goals
12%
Defence Force 1+ goals
93%
Defence Force 2+ goals
74%
Defence Force 3+ goals
49%

Draw no bet

Prison Service (draw refunded)
18%
Defence Force (draw refunded)
82%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Prison Service at home — creates 1.40, concedes 2.00 · 5 matches

Defence Force away — creates 3.31, concedes 0.96 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Prison Service attack 1.40 + Defence Force defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.18

Defence Force attack 3.31 + Prison Service defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Prison Service scores more
15%
level
17%
Defence Force scores more
68%

Defence Force at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Defence Force will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'
R. Coryat
39'
D. Ollivierra
64'
A. Peters
87'
J. Cooper
89'
K. Hitlal

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #591: Prison Service 1–4 Defence Force

Defence Force beat Prison Service 4-1 in League #591 on June 1, 2025.

Goals: R. Coryat (20'), D. Ollivierra (39'), A. Peters (64'), J. Cooper (87'), K. Hitlal (89').

The match was played at Ken Cooke Ground in Port of Spain.