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Prison Leopards vs Man Utd Zambia Academy — Super League 2019

Prison Leopards
Prison Leopards
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Man Utd Zambia Academy
Man Utd Zambia Academy
5/2/2026Super LeagueSuper League · Round 31President Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Prison Leopards40%
×Draw32%
Man Utd Zambia Academy29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Prison Leopards
1.05
Man Utd Zambia Academy
0.85

Prison Leopards creates 24% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 77 away

creates per match

Prison Leopards
1.02
Man Utd Zambia Academy
1.03

allows per match

Prison Leopards
0.68
Man Utd Zambia Academy
1.08

finishing

Prison Leopards+0.00on par
Man Utd Zambia Academy+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Prison Leopards ↓

Man Utd Zambia Academy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–113%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Prison Leopards or draw
71%
Prison Leopards or Man Utd Zambia Academy
68%
Draw or Man Utd Zambia Academy
60%

Winning margin

Prison Leopards wins by 2+
16%
Man Utd Zambia Academy wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Prison Leopards 1+ goals
65%
Prison Leopards 2+ goals
28%
Prison Leopards 3+ goals
9%
Man Utd Zambia Academy 1+ goals
57%
Man Utd Zambia Academy 2+ goals
21%
Man Utd Zambia Academy 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Prison Leopards (draw refunded)
58%
Man Utd Zambia Academy (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Prison Leopards at home — creates 1.02, concedes 0.68 · 93 matches

Man Utd Zambia Academy away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.08 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Prison Leopards attack 1.02 + Man Utd Zambia Academy defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.05

Man Utd Zambia Academy attack 1.03 + Prison Leopards defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Prison Leopards scores more
40%
level
32%
Man Utd Zambia Academy scores more
29%

Prison Leopards at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Prison Leopards will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Prison Leopards 0–2 Man Utd Zambia Academy

Man Utd Zambia Academy beat Prison Leopards 2-0 in Super League on May 2, 2026.

The match was played at President Stadium in Kabwe.