Prison Leopards 1–1 Kansanshi Dynamos

Prison Leopards

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Kansanshi Dynamos

1/14/2023

Super League · Round 19President Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Prison Leopards44%

×Draw33%

Kansanshi Dynamos23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Prison LeopardsExpected goals in this matchKansanshi Dynamos

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.06

0.68

Prison Leopards

1.06

Kansanshi Dynamos

0.68

Prison Leopards creates 56% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 68 away

1.02

creates per match

0.68

allows per match

1.10

creates per match

Prison Leopards

1.02

Kansanshi Dynamos

0.68

allows per match

Prison Leopards

0.68

Kansanshi Dynamos

1.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Prison Leopards+0.00on par

Kansanshi Dynamos+0.00on par

Total goals

Under75
Over25

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No68
Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Prison Leopards ↓

Kansanshi Dynamos →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–018%

0–112%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–019%

1–113%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–17%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

82%18%1.5

52%48%2.5

25%75%3.5

10%90%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

Prison Leopards or draw

77%

Prison Leopards or Kansanshi Dynamos

67%

Draw or Kansanshi Dynamos

56%

Winning margin

Prison Leopards wins by 2+

18%

Kansanshi Dynamos wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Prison Leopards 1+ goals

65%

Prison Leopards 2+ goals

29%

Prison Leopards 3+ goals

9%

Kansanshi Dynamos 1+ goals

49%

Kansanshi Dynamos 2+ goals

15%

Kansanshi Dynamos 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Prison Leopards (draw refunded)

66%

Kansanshi Dynamos (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

20%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Prison Leopards at home — creates 1.02, concedes 0.68 · 93 matches

Kansanshi Dynamos away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.10 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Prison Leopards attack 1.02 + Kansanshi Dynamos defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.06

Kansanshi Dynamos attack 0.68 + Prison Leopards defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Prison Leopards scores more

44%

level

33%

Kansanshi Dynamos scores more

23%

Prison Leopards at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Prison Leopards will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff