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Prishtina vs Trepça'89 — Superliga 2019

Prishtina
Prishtina
FT
4 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Trepça'89
Trepça'89
4/1/2023SuperligaSuperliga · Round 27Stadiumi Fadil Vokrri

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Prishtina57%
×Draw22%
Trepça'8921%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Prishtina
1.92
Trepça'89
1.09

Prishtina creates 76% more chances

Season form · 125 home / 53 away

creates per match

Prishtina
1.65
Trepça'89
1.25

allows per match

Prishtina
0.93
Trepça'89
2.19

finishing

Prishtina+0.00on par
Trepça'89+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Prishtina ↓

Trepça'89 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Prishtina or draw
79%
Prishtina or Trepça'89
78%
Draw or Trepça'89
43%

Winning margin

Prishtina wins by 2+
33%
Trepça'89 wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Prishtina 1+ goals
85%
Prishtina 2+ goals
57%
Prishtina 3+ goals
30%
Trepça'89 1+ goals
66%
Trepça'89 2+ goals
30%
Trepça'89 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Prishtina (draw refunded)
73%
Trepça'89 (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Prishtina at home — creates 1.65, concedes 0.93 · 125 matches

Trepça'89 away — creates 1.25, concedes 2.19 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Prishtina attack 1.65 + Trepça'89 defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 1.92

Trepça'89 attack 1.25 + Prishtina defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Prishtina scores more
57%
level
22%
Trepça'89 scores more
21%

Prishtina at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Prishtina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Superliga: Prishtina 4–1 Trepça'89

Prishtina beat Trepça'89 4-1 in Superliga on April 1, 2023.

The match was played at Stadiumi Fadil Vokrri in Pristina.