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Prishtina vs Fushë Kosova — Superliga 2019

Prishtina
Prishtina
FT
5 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Fushë Kosova
Fushë Kosova
5/18/2024SuperligaSuperliga · Round 35Stadiumi Bajram Aliu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Prishtina68%
×Draw21%
Fushë Kosova11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Prishtina
1.91
Fushë Kosova
0.63

Prishtina creates 203% more chances

Season form · 125 home / 18 away

creates per match

Prishtina
1.65
Fushë Kosova
0.33

allows per match

Prishtina
0.93
Fushë Kosova
2.17

finishing

Prishtina+0.00on par
Fushë Kosova+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Prishtina ↓

Fushë Kosova →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Prishtina or draw
89%
Prishtina or Fushë Kosova
79%
Draw or Fushë Kosova
32%

Winning margin

Prishtina wins by 2+
42%
Fushë Kosova wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Prishtina 1+ goals
85%
Prishtina 2+ goals
57%
Prishtina 3+ goals
30%
Fushë Kosova 1+ goals
47%
Fushë Kosova 2+ goals
13%
Fushë Kosova 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Prishtina (draw refunded)
86%
Fushë Kosova (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Prishtina at home — creates 1.65, concedes 0.93 · 125 matches

Fushë Kosova away — creates 0.33, concedes 2.17 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Prishtina attack 1.65 + Fushë Kosova defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.91

Fushë Kosova attack 0.33 + Prishtina defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Prishtina scores more
68%
level
21%
Fushë Kosova scores more
11%

Prishtina at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Prishtina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Prishtina vs Fushë Kosova

Prishtina beat Fushë Kosova 5-0 in Superliga on May 18, 2024.

The match was played at Stadiumi Bajram Aliu in Srbica.