Prishtina 1–1 Dukagjini: Result & Stats | Superliga

Prishtina

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Dukagjini

4/13/2026

Superliga · Round 28

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 107+ matches

Prishtina52%

×Draw25%

Dukagjini23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PrishtinaExpected goals in this matchDukagjini

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

0.95

Prishtina

1.58

Dukagjini

0.95

Prishtina creates 66% more chances

Season form · 125 home / 107 away

1.65

creates per match

0.97

0.93

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Prishtina

1.65

Dukagjini

0.97

allows per match

Prishtina

0.93

Dukagjini

1.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Prishtina+0.00on par

Dukagjini+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Prishtina ↓

Dukagjini →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Prishtina or draw

77%

Prishtina or Dukagjini

75%

Draw or Dukagjini

48%

Winning margin

Prishtina wins by 2+

27%

Dukagjini wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Prishtina 1+ goals

79%

Prishtina 2+ goals

47%

Prishtina 3+ goals

21%

Dukagjini 1+ goals

61%

Dukagjini 2+ goals

25%

Dukagjini 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Prishtina (draw refunded)

70%

Dukagjini (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Prishtina at home — creates 1.65, concedes 0.93 · 125 matches

Dukagjini away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.52 · 107 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Prishtina attack 1.65 + Dukagjini defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.58

Dukagjini attack 0.97 + Prishtina defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Prishtina scores more

52%

level

25%

Dukagjini scores more

23%

Prishtina at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Prishtina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff