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Prishtina vs Besa Pejë — Superliga 2019

Prishtina
Prishtina
FT
4 – 0
Besa Pejë
Besa Pejë
M. Pefqeli 70'
J. Otto John 60', 25', 3'
10/17/2020SuperligaSuperliga · Round 6Stadiumi Fadil Vokrri

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Prishtina68%
×Draw19%
Besa Pejë13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Prishtina
2.16
Besa Pejë
0.80

Prishtina creates 170% more chances

Season form · 125 home / 18 away

creates per match

Prishtina
1.65
Besa Pejë
0.67

allows per match

Prishtina
0.93
Besa Pejë
2.67

finishing

Prishtina+0.00on par
Besa Pejë+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Prishtina ↓

Besa Pejë →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Prishtina or draw
87%
Prishtina or Besa Pejë
81%
Draw or Besa Pejë
32%

Winning margin

Prishtina wins by 2+
44%
Besa Pejë wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Prishtina 1+ goals
88%
Prishtina 2+ goals
63%
Prishtina 3+ goals
36%
Besa Pejë 1+ goals
55%
Besa Pejë 2+ goals
19%
Besa Pejë 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Prishtina (draw refunded)
84%
Besa Pejë (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Prishtina at home — creates 1.65, concedes 0.93 · 125 matches

Besa Pejë away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.67 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Prishtina attack 1.65 + Besa Pejë defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.16

Besa Pejë attack 0.67 + Prishtina defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Prishtina scores more
68%
level
19%
Besa Pejë scores more
13%

Prishtina at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Prishtina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'
J. Otto John
25'
J. Otto John
60'
J. Otto John
70'
M. Pefqeli

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Prishtina vs Besa Pejë

Prishtina beat Besa Pejë 4-0 in Superliga on October 17, 2020.

Goals: J. Otto John (3', 25', 60'), M. Pefqeli (70').

The match was played at Stadiumi Fadil Vokrri in Pristina.