Prishtina Bern 2–0 Thun II: Result & Stats

Prishtina Bern

FT

2 – 0

HT: 3 – 1

Thun II

2/22/2025

1. Liga Classic - Group 2 · Group 2 - 17Kunstrasenfeld Bodenweid 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Prishtina Bern58%

×Draw22%

Thun II20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Prishtina BernExpected goals in this matchThun II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.96

1.06

Prishtina Bern

1.96

Thun II

1.06

Prishtina Bern creates 85% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 45 away

1.87

creates per match

1.33

0.80

allows per match

2.04

creates per match

Prishtina Bern

1.87

Thun II

1.33

allows per match

Prishtina Bern

0.80

Thun II

2.04

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Prishtina Bern+0.00on par

Thun II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Prishtina Bern ↓

Thun II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Prishtina Bern or draw

80%

Prishtina Bern or Thun II

78%

Draw or Thun II

42%

Winning margin

Prishtina Bern wins by 2+

34%

Thun II wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Prishtina Bern 1+ goals

86%

Prishtina Bern 2+ goals

58%

Prishtina Bern 3+ goals

31%

Thun II 1+ goals

65%

Thun II 2+ goals

29%

Thun II 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Prishtina Bern (draw refunded)

74%

Thun II (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Prishtina Bern at home — creates 1.87, concedes 0.80 · 15 matches

Thun II away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.04 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Prishtina Bern attack 1.87 + Thun II defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 1.96

Thun II attack 1.33 + Prishtina Bern defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Prishtina Bern scores more

58%

level

22%

Thun II scores more

20%

Prishtina Bern at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Prishtina Bern will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff