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Prishtina Bern vs Rotkreuz — 1. Liga Classic - Group 2 2019

Prishtina Bern
Prishtina Bern
FT
5 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Rotkreuz
Rotkreuz
11/16/20241. Liga Classic - Group 21. Liga Classic - Group 2 · Group 2 - 15Kunstrasenfeld Bodenweid 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Prishtina Bern56%
×Draw23%
Rotkreuz21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Prishtina Bern
1.83
Rotkreuz
1.01

Prishtina Bern creates 81% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 45 away

creates per match

Prishtina Bern
1.87
Rotkreuz
1.22

allows per match

Prishtina Bern
0.80
Rotkreuz
1.78

finishing

Prishtina Bern+0.00on par
Rotkreuz+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Prishtina Bern ↓

Rotkreuz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Prishtina Bern or draw
79%
Prishtina Bern or Rotkreuz
77%
Draw or Rotkreuz
44%

Winning margin

Prishtina Bern wins by 2+
32%
Rotkreuz wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Prishtina Bern 1+ goals
84%
Prishtina Bern 2+ goals
54%
Prishtina Bern 3+ goals
28%
Rotkreuz 1+ goals
64%
Rotkreuz 2+ goals
27%
Rotkreuz 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Prishtina Bern (draw refunded)
73%
Rotkreuz (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Prishtina Bern at home — creates 1.87, concedes 0.80 · 15 matches

Rotkreuz away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.78 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Prishtina Bern attack 1.87 + Rotkreuz defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.83

Rotkreuz attack 1.22 + Prishtina Bern defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Prishtina Bern scores more
56%
level
23%
Rotkreuz scores more
21%

Prishtina Bern at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Prishtina Bern will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Prishtina Bern vs Rotkreuz

Prishtina Bern beat Rotkreuz 5-0 in 1. Liga Classic - Group 2 on November 16, 2024.

The match was played at Kunstrasenfeld Bodenweid 2 in Bern.