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Princesa Solimões vs Trem — Serie D 2026

Princesa Solimões
Princesa Solimões
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Trem
Trem
Josinaldo Branco 85'
Weverton 55', 6'
6/10/2017Serie DSerie D · Round 4Estádio Olímpico Municipal Gilberto Mestrinho (Manacapuru, Amazonas)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Princesa Solimões60%
×Draw22%
Trem18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Princesa Solimões
1.89
Trem
0.94

Princesa Solimões creates 101% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 36 away

creates per match

Princesa Solimões
1.94
Trem
1.17

allows per match

Princesa Solimões
0.71
Trem
1.83

finishing

Princesa Solimões+0.00on par
Trem+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Princesa Solimões ↓

Trem →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Princesa Solimões or draw
82%
Princesa Solimões or Trem
78%
Draw or Trem
40%

Winning margin

Princesa Solimões wins by 2+
35%
Trem wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Princesa Solimões 1+ goals
85%
Princesa Solimões 2+ goals
56%
Princesa Solimões 3+ goals
29%
Trem 1+ goals
61%
Trem 2+ goals
24%
Trem 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Princesa Solimões (draw refunded)
76%
Trem (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Princesa Solimões at home — creates 1.94, concedes 0.71 · 17 matches

Trem away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.83 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Princesa Solimões attack 1.94 + Trem defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.89

Trem attack 1.17 + Princesa Solimões defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Princesa Solimões scores more
60%
level
22%
Trem scores more
18%

Princesa Solimões at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Princesa Solimões will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'
Weverton
55'
Weverton
85'
Josinaldo Branco

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Princesa Solimões 3 – 0 Trem

Princesa Solimões beat Trem 3-0 in Serie D on June 10, 2017.

Goals: Weverton (6', 55'), Josinaldo Branco (85').

The match was played at Estádio Olímpico Municipal Gilberto Mestrinho (Manacapuru, Amazonas).