Princesa Solimões 3–3 Manaus FC: Result & Stats

Princesa Solimões

FT

3 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Manaus FC

Jonas 90+7' (pen), 69' (pen)

Gutierrez 47' (OG)

Vinicius Leandro 90'

Rafael Ibiapino 55', 43' (pen)

5/12/2024

Serie D · 1st Phase - 3Estádio Olímpico Municipal Gilberto Mestrinho

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Princesa Solimões53%

×Draw24%

Manaus FC23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Princesa SolimõesExpected goals in this matchManaus FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.00

Princesa Solimões

1.67

Manaus FC

1.00

Princesa Solimões creates 67% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 34 away

1.94

creates per match

1.29

0.71

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Princesa Solimões

1.94

Manaus FC

1.29

allows per match

Princesa Solimões

0.71

Manaus FC

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Princesa Solimões+0.00on par

Manaus FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Princesa Solimões ↓

Manaus FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Princesa Solimões or draw

77%

Princesa Solimões or Manaus FC

76%

Draw or Manaus FC

47%

Winning margin

Princesa Solimões wins by 2+

29%

Manaus FC wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Princesa Solimões 1+ goals

81%

Princesa Solimões 2+ goals

50%

Princesa Solimões 3+ goals

23%

Manaus FC 1+ goals

63%

Manaus FC 2+ goals

26%

Manaus FC 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Princesa Solimões (draw refunded)

70%

Manaus FC (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Princesa Solimões at home — creates 1.94, concedes 0.71 · 17 matches

Manaus FC away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.41 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Princesa Solimões attack 1.94 + Manaus FC defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.67

Manaus FC attack 1.29 + Princesa Solimões defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Princesa Solimões scores more

53%

level

24%

Manaus FC scores more

23%

Princesa Solimões at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Princesa Solimões will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

43'

Rafael IbiapinoPenalty

46'

Jonas← Állefe

46'

Victor Leonardo← Daniel Costa

46'

Histone← Adenilson

47'

GutierrezOwn goal

55'

Rafael Ibiapino

57'

Romário Simões← Kaique

58'

Vinicius Soares← Gabriel Mury

66'

Vinicius Leandro← Histone

69'

JonasPenalty

79'

Jefferson← Gutierrez

87'

Lucas Góes← Léo Itaperuna

90+1'

Miliano← Denis

90+1'

Roney← Renanzinho

90'

Vinicius Leandro

90+7'

JonasPenalty

Princesa

Manaus

Vinícius

Victor

🥅

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Maurinho

46'▲Jonas←▼Állefe

46'▲Victor Leonardo←▼Daniel Costa

57'▲Romário Simões←▼Kaique

58'▲Vinicius Soares←▼Gabriel Mury

87'▲Lucas Góes←▼Léo Itaperuna

Princesa Solimões substitutes

JonasLeonardoSimõesSoaresGóesNiccolasCrisDouglasGabrielVictorKoffi

Manager: Renatinho Potiguar

46'▲Histone←▼Adenilson

66'▲Vinicius Leandro←▼Histone

79'▲Jefferson←▼Gutierrez

90+1'▲Miliano←▼Denis

90+1'▲Roney←▼Renanzinho

Manaus FC substitutes

HistoneLeandroJeffersonMilianoRoneyWaldsonBombadoGomesMaranhãoFernandoPiresThiaguinho

Match Recap: Princesa Solimões vs Manaus FC

Princesa Solimões and Manaus FC drew 3-3 in Serie D on May 12, 2024.

Goals: Rafael Ibiapino (43' pen, 55'), Gutierrez (47' o.g.), Jonas (69' pen, 90+7' pen), Vinicius Leandro (90').

The match was played at Estádio Olímpico Municipal Gilberto Mestrinho in Manacapuru, Amazonas.

Princesa Solimões vs Manaus FC — Serie D 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Princesa Solimões vs Manaus FC